3.8%
Change vs. yesterday: +0.2pp
Updated 2025-07-23
Trend (last 90 days)
Top Drivers Today
Russia launches “July Storm” mega‑drills (150+ ships, 15k troops) across Pacific, Arctic, Baltic & Caspian.
Moscow says it’s stress‑testing long‑range weapons and unmanned systems—large, multi‑theatre drills that signal capability flexing, not de‑escalation.
Russian delegation flies to Turkey for first peace talks with Ukraine in 7+ weeks.
Dialogue resumes, but both sides still frame positions as far apart—so risk dips only slightly.
Taipei says China is “clearly” meddling in a mass recall vote, adding to military/diplomatic pressure.
Officials cite evidence of Beijing influence ops ahead of ballots targeting 24 lawmakers; underscores ongoing cross‑Strait tension.
Russia says it’s monitoring reported deployment of US nuclear bombs back to the UK.
The nuclear rhetoric keeps NATO–Russia brinkmanship in headlines, sustaining a higher baseline risk.
Iran warns UN sanctions snapback would complicate the nuclear standoff; vows enrichment can’t stop.
Tehran signals no retreat on uranium work, keeping Middle East proliferation and great‑power entanglement risks alive.
How We Calculate This
We blend publicly reported military escalations, diplomatic signals, and market risk indicators. Each factor gets a weight (0–5). The daily % is mapped from the total score using a logistic curve, capped at 15% to keep realism.
- Parse 20–40 top geo‑political headlines each day.
- Extract signals (troop moves, nuclear rhetoric, peace talks).
- Score each signal and aggregate.
- Smooth with a 7‑day moving average to avoid whiplash.
- Output % and top five drivers with sources.
Methodology v1.0 · Last updated 2025-07-01
Archive
Full historical data and notes coming soon. For now, the chart above shows the last 90 days.
Disclaimer
This site is an informational project, not an intelligence assessment. The % is a heuristic, not a prediction. Always consult multiple sources and keep perspective.
If this topic causes distress, consider taking a break and visiting resources that support mental well‑being.